An Indian army base in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir, came under attack by Pakistan based/backed terrorists on September 18, 2016. At the time of penning this piece down, 18 Indian soldiers had attained martyrdom and many are still fighting for their lives in the hospital. The four perpetrators (of the attack) have been neutralized.
In the wake of these attacks, there is widespread anger in India and calls for a decisive military action are being made, either via debates in television studios or on social media. Even though the country is singeing with anger, we need to take a step back and think clearly of the plausible options we have in front of us. Pressurizing and expecting the ruling dispensation into doing something in haste can cost us dearly. We’re way past using diplomacy as the only way to pressurize Pakistan, something that we all understand. What non-diplomatic and tangible action(s) can India take in order to deter Pakistan from attacking her again, that’s what I’ll be exploring in this post.
Before I begin, there is a sad reality to any action that India decides to take and one that I’m really apprehensive about: the precious loss of life that we will have to suffer from in the form of our soldiers. Personally speaking, it’s really embarrassing for me to even ask the government to opt for military action simply because I am not a soldier and will not be fighting for my country if such a situation indeed arises. If all I’m doing is writing such posts from the air conditioned environs of my home, then how can I expect a fellow countryman, who is a son, possibly a husband and a father too, to put his life in danger for our motherland that belongs to him and me equally? I’m sure the mother whose son, the wife whose husband and the children whose father is fighting on the border will be praying 24×7 for the safety of their kin, and war is certainly not a scenario wherein their loved one will be safe. However, when dealing with a terrorist state like Pakistan and keeping aside all diplomatic routes for a while, there aren’t any options available on the table that can ensure that none of my brothers in the Indian Army will be hurt. So at the risk of sounding as an insensitive soul, I’ll be analyzing a few options here, all of which will unfortunately lead to some loss of life.
Here are these possible scenarios:
A full-fledged war with Pakistan
This will involve the Indian Army entering Pakistan with an aim of reaching Islamabad before Pakistan (hopefully) begs for peace. Of course, this is an ideal scenario and not as easy as I made it sound. Let’s explore some of the drawbacks of this approach:
India is not prepared for a full-fledged war
One of the drawbacks of the misrule of 10 years of UPA from 2004-2014 was the policy paralysis that plagued India, and her defense modernization was one it’s biggest casualties. Even though we’ve seen a lot of movement in this direction (of defense modernization) and domestic manufacturing under the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative in the last two years, we still have a long way to go. In the event of a war, even though India can tackle Pakistan all by itself, we still need to factor in the possibility of China joining the war with Pakistan against India, a scenario we’re not prepared for, yet. It might take us years to reach that level of preparedness wherein we can comfortably handle Pakistan and simultaneously be a strong enough deterrent to China joining the war alongside Pakistan.
Possibility of international isolation
Unless you are Uncle Sam, initiating a war will be frowned upon by the international community. No matter how much we (as civilians) claim that it does/should not matter to us as to what the world powers think of our actions considering that it’s a matter of national security, the reality is completely different. International isolation is what we have to inflict on Pakistan, not become a victim of one. If India can successfully make a case (for war) using its diplomatic machinery, this drawback can be ignored. However, it’s a big ask! Politics and hypocrisy go hand in hand. Even though the United States or its alliance partners can never justify its war on Iraq or admit that it was an error of epic proportions, it (i.e. the U.S.) and other countries will have an opinion on India’s actions, not necessarily in its favor, India’s untarnished track record in maintaining peace in the region notwithstanding. India will be seen as the aggressor and it will be hard for it garner the backing of these ‘peace loving’ world powers. India is no Uncle Sam, so all the rules, regulations and lectures as to how one should strive for world peace will be in order. It’ll be difficult for us to continue with the war in such a scenario.
Economic cost, casualties, etc.
Indian casualty figure during the Kargil War of 1999 stood at 527, which wasn’t even a full-fledged war. Of course, we can also remember the heroism of our soldiers in the Battle of Longewala in 1971, wherein 2000 Pakistani soldiers suffered heavy casualties at the hands of our 120 brave Indian soldiers, only 2 of whom attained martyrdom. In the event of an actual war, how big these casualty figures will be is anybody’s guess, something that should be avoided at all costs.
Wars are not cheap. India is still a developing country and the money spent on fighting a full-fledged war can be used for other purposes. It’ll not be good for the investment climate in the country and will take us a long time to get over this massive expenditure.
The loss of life and property aside, I won’t even hazard a guess on the consequences of this conventional war turning into a nuclear one.
Verdict: Avoid at all costs.
Striking terrorist training camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK)
This involves India launching limited air strikes on the terror camps operating in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). Let’s explore some of the drawbacks of this approach:
It’s not a long term solution
Destroying terrorist training camps might yield short term results, but it won’t help India in the long run. These camps will be set up again in no time and it’ll be a waste of India’s time and money to indulge in such an action, not to mention the precious lives of our soldiers that will potentially be lost. Most importantly, it won’t be a deterrent in any which way for Pakistan or for the terrorists operating with impunity from its soil.
Pakistani casualties will be insignificant
I’m not referring to the number of Pakistani casualties here. The terrorists killed as part of such an operation will be minnows. The lives lost in POK itself will hardly raise anybody’s eyebrows in Pakistan (though India crossing the LoC certainly will). How sensitive Pakistan is to the youngsters fighting on its behalf can be gauged from its attitude towards Ajmal Kasab, one of the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks of 2008, who was disowned by it after being captured alive by India. People who matter to Pakistan, like Maulana Masood Azhar, Syed Salahuddin and Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, will still be alive and kicking even after this operation. What will we have achieved in the long run by neutralizing a few replaceable and insignificant pawns? Not much!
It can turn into a full-fledged war
Discussed above.
Verdict: Avoid.
Covert Operations + Other Actions
This involves taking out the likes of Maulana Masood Azhar, Syed Salahuddin, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, Dawood Ibrahim and the ISI chief Rizwan Akhtar by Indian undercover agents in Pakistan. In due course of time, this must become a norm: whenever there is a terror strike on Indian soil, we catch the handlers hiding in Pakistan and ensure they are neutralized. Let’s go over some of the merits of this approach once:
Will act as a deterrent for Pakistan
When terrorists operating out of Pakistan realize that they WILL be punished if they are involved in any misadventure against India, they won’t have the courage to do anything nasty. Fear of fatal consequences is what India will be instilling in their minds should they ever choose to misbehave.
Limited loss of Indian life
The casualty figures will not be as high when compared to the other two scenarios previously discussed. Irrespective of the number of lives lost, it’s still an irreparable loss to the nation and to the respective families, and consequently the only drawback to this approach.
Will not be an economic nightmare for the country
The cost incurred by India will involve training these undercover agents and the cost of the operation itself. It will be insignificant compared to the other two scenarios previously discussed.
No risk of international isolation
Officially, India can deny any role in these assassinations. This way, we won’t be losing our standing in the international community.
Will give Pakistan a taste of its own medicine
In the aftermath of these assassinations and to add insult to Pakistan’s injury, we can do a kadi ninda (severely criticize) of the said assassinations and then offer them all our help in order to catch the perpetrators of the attack. Given that Pakistan will accuse India of orchestrating these assassinations, we can then ask them for proof of our involvement and let our efficient judicial system take care of the rest. In order to show our seriousness towards improving relations between the two countries, we might just be able to utilize the services of the otherwise useless ‘Aman Ki Asha’ (hope for peace) brigade to indulge in people to people contact.
India’s objectives will be achieved
With perpetrator(s) of the attacks neutralized and Pakistan given a lesson, India will be mighty satisfied.
However, our efforts should not end here. The above antics are short term measures to buy us some time, time to set our house in order. Though they should deter Pakistan against any future misadventure, they’re not enough to completely contain it. In the long run, we have to prepare for war, a full-fledged war, not just with Pakistan but also with China in the event of the latter deciding to join its long time friend against India. Though we may never have to resort to ever attacking Pakistan, the fact that we are capable of doing so and our adversaries being aware of this fact should keep them in check. This approach will require long-term planning and strategizing, something that might span years. In order to really prepare for this eventuality, we should:
- Beef up our defenses in Afghanistan so as to encircle Pakistan.
Afghanistan is a friend and itself a victim of terror emanating from Pakistan, just like India. We’re already training their armed forces and are helping them rebuild their country. Presence of Indian armed forces on Afghan soil, specifically on the Af-Pak border, will be a win-win situation for the two countries: Afghanistan will be more secure by the presence of Indian forces on its soil, whereas India will gain by having a psychological and tactical advantage over Pakistan by its very presence on the latter’s western border. - Start providing logistical support, arms and training to the Baloch leaders in Pakistan Occupied Balochistan with an eventual aim of freeing their motherland from the clutches of Pakistan.
- This way, the Pakistan army will be busy in dealing with a formidable front on its south west frontier.
- Presence of Indian forces on the Af-Pak border will only aid this process.
- Emboldened by India’s support, the increase in resistance activities by Balochis and their freedom struggle will be hard for the world to ignore. It should ideally reach a point wherein Pakistan realizes that it’s not in its interest to hold onto Balochistan anymore without incurring a significant cost.
- Balochistan comprises nearly one third of Pakistan. A smaller Pakistan (i.e. Pakistan minus Balochistan) means a weaker Pakistan.
- Abrogate the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960
This should be our last resort. India has an impeccable record in honoring its commitments and international treaties are akin to a country giving its word that the said treaty would be respected. Abrogation of such a treaty would be tantamount to attacking the people of Pakistan and the action itself might come across as petty to say the least. How this accord can be treated as a potent weapon in our limited arsenal without us abrogating it should be something that our policy makers should explore.
Verdict: Go for it!
These are few of the measures that India can and must take. I’m hopeful our government will take some tangible action against Pakistan this time around and won’t let us down.
‘Jai Hind!’ ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai!’
